January 3, 2026: China has militarized more of the Spratly Islands; Fiery Cross Reef, Mischief Reef and Subi Reef. Mischief Reef is the largest at 663 hectares. Subi Reef is about 70 percent the size of Mischief and Fiery Cross about half the size of Mischief Reef. All these reefs have air strips and docking facilities. Subi Reef recently received two radar domes like those on the other two reefs, which gives the Chinese near total radar coverage of the seas and airspace around the Spratly Islands. All three reefs have had their surface area expanded and built up to include upgrades to ELINT/Electronic Intelligence systems, weapons emplacements, housing and related infrastructure. Empty weapons and vehicle emplacements on these islands enable the Chinese to quickly fly or ship in vehicle-mounted weapons and radar/fire control sets. The emplacements can also handle anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile launchers.

Last year saw the Chinese ramming Filipino coast guard ships as well as using water cannons against them. The ongoing territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea continue to escalate as the Chinese openly and aggressively drive Filipino navy ships from areas the Philippines have long controlled. In 2016 the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Netherlands ruled that, under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Philippines won their case brought in 2013 that Chinese claims and activities in the South China Sea were unlawful. China had claimed 90 percent of the South China Sea. Over the last sixteen years China has been increasingly aggressive while asserting those claims. While this recently escalated to using water cannon and ramming, past efforts are more tangible like the artificial islands built throughout the South China Sea and garrisoned with heavily armed Chinese forces.

The United States and other Western and local allies like Australia, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore send warships and aircraft into the disputed areas to confront the Chinese. The message is that if China wants to start World War 3 in the South China Sea, the opposition will be substantial and include most of China’s neighbors.

An added problem for the Chinese was the 2022 election of Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. as the Filipino president. Nicknamed Bongbong, the new president was the son of an ousted prior Filipino president. Bongbong is a populist reformer who delivered on his campaign promises to reform the laws that made it difficult for Filipino farmers to make a living. Bongbong also upgraded and reinforced the armed forces, as well as military alliances with the United States and local nations that were also threatened by China.

The Philippines increased its military presence and activities in the South China Sea, especially around the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal, where it claims sovereignty over parts of the disputed waters and features. The country has also received support from its allies, such as the United States, Japan, and Australia, in conducting joint exercises and patrols, as well as providing military assistance and equipment. However, China has also intensified its operations and use of coercion in the region, deploying more ships, aircraft, and missiles, and building new structures and facilities on the artificial islands it occupies.

The risk of miscalculation and escalation remains high as China continues to ignore a 2016 ruling by the international Permanent Court of Arbitration. China had previously agreed to abide by the terms of the court ruling, but denied knowledge of any previous agreement when the Philippines resisted Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. The international support the Philippines received to confront China has stalled the Chinese plans to occupy and fortify all the islands in the South China Sea,

The Philippines has maintained a balance between its alliance with the United States and its economic ties with China. The Philippines reaffirmed its commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States, which provide for mutual defense and security cooperation, as well as access to military bases and facilities. The country has also welcomed the U.S. support for its maritime claims and rights in the South China Sea, as well as the U.S. sanctions against Chinese officials and entities involved in the disputes. However, the Philippines has also sought to improve diplomatic relations with China, which is its largest trading partner and a major source of investment. The Philippines sought to manage and resolve the territorial disputes through dialogue and diplomacy, rather than confrontation and arbitration, as it did in 2016 when it won a landmark case at the Permanent Court of Arbitration that invalidated China's expansive claims in the South China Sea.

Meanwhile the Philippines has an unemployment rate of about five percent, inflation is about three percent in 2025, the local currency, the peso, has stabilized its exchange rate versus the dollar to between 55 and 60 pesos to the dollar. Economic growth for 2025 is five percent.

Decades of effort finally reduced or eliminated the internal threat of leftist and Islamic rebellions. Now most Filipinos are more concerned about endemic corruption, but optimistic in the progress made since 2023 to reduce drug addiction and reduce drug smuggling.

There is also the Chinese threat, with more Chinese warships showing up in what had been, until recently, unquestionably Filipino controlled waters. Most Filipinos see China as a threat but not as crucial as the internal problems with drugs, corruption, Islamic terrorism, and unemployment.