December 10, 2025:
Ukraine has been fighting the Russian invaders for three years now. The expensive Russian failure to conquer Ukraine is largely due to Ukrainian ingenuity and innovations. Ukraine concentrated on increasing drone production and effectiveness any way it could. For most of the last three years the Russians responded but rarely got ahead. One area where Russia fell behind was drones. Ukraine revolutionized warfare with its many drone-based innovations. Initially Russia tried to keep up but economic sanctions and continuous new drone developments from Ukraine got in the way.
Over the last year Russia has effectively reformed its drone development and production efforts through its new Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies. Rubicon streamlined development and concentrated on a few drone models. Russia also maintained its lead in electronic countermeasures to disable or disrupt the operations of Ukrainian drones. The new Rubicon organization develops and tests advanced robotic systems and AI/Artificial Intelligence. It was because of Rubicon that Russia pioneered the use of fiber-optic drones which have had a significant impact on the battlefield. These are controlled via a fiber-optic cable, providing a secure video feed in real time which cannot be jammed. Actually, the US military DARPA research agency developed the fiber optic control system twenty years ago, but the Russians, followed by the Ukrainians, first used them in combat.
Meanwhile Ukraine is falling behind in drone development. Ukraine is still trying to recover from the 2022-24 period of chaotic development and production. This was when individuals or small groups of enthusiasts built drones at home or improvised workshops in basements, garages or any available space. Ukraine has since established factories to mass produce drones and is getting more drones from manufacturers in NATO nations.
By late 2024 Ukraine had come up with another gaggle of drone ideas. The most visually obvious one is the remotely controlled drone swarm. The usual Russian defense is jamming the control signals. The Ukrainian swarm has drones capable of operating independently when jammed and continuing the attack with less accuracy but, because it is a swarm with dozens of drones, some are still going to hit the target. The swarm concept has been tested successfully and the next step was using it against the Russians. When that happened, the Russians quickly adapted electronic drone defenses to disrupt the impact of swarm tactics.
Ukrainians are able to modify their tactics and technology quickly, often in hours if all that is involved is a software modification. One new concept that has already been used is First Person View/FPV drones to plant magnetic mines on the edge of a road or trail Russian armored vehicles are headed for. When the armored vehicles show up, all that moving metal activates the magnetic mines, blowing the tracks or wheels off the armored vehicles. Thus immobilized, the crews usually bail out and run before another FPV drone with more explosives arrives to finish off the motionless vehicles.
Yet the Russian Rubicon effort is closing the innovation gap and doing it in a more disciplined and lasting manner. Rubicon is upgrading every aspect of Russian drone use, including rapidly implementing suggestions or solutions to user problems. Russia may still lose this war, but it won’t be blamed on Russian inability to keep up in drone development and use.