February 17, 2026: As if morale in the Russian military was not bad enough because of the Ukraine war, members of the Russian Northern Fleet and their families suffered from a breakdown of heating systems. This occurred last month in Severomorsk, the city north of the Arctic Circle that houses the headquarters of the Northern Fleet. While there have been heating breakdowns before in military bases near the Arctic Circle, and soldiers froze to death, the current situation occurred in a city full of senior military commanders and their families. While no one died in Severomorsk, several hundred people were without heat from the central heating systems for several days.

What scares Russians the most was how the government of a major Arctic Circle region city allowed their heating system to deteriorate and fail during the coldest part of the year. Part of the reason is lack of money for maintenance and that nearly half the Russian government budget was used for the war in Ukraine.

The recent heating emergency in Severomorsk was not unanticipated. As winter approached last year, the government discovered that in many parts of the country the centralized apartment complex heating plans have fallen into disrepair, leaving the apartment building dependent on them without sufficient heat or no heat at all. Russia depends on a lot of heating plants that distribute heat to families living in these apartments and, when there is not enough or no heat at all, people are angrier at the government than they ever were over the massive losses of soldiers in Ukraine. This lack of heat is an immediate problem that is far more important than the latest bad news from Ukraine.

The war and the sanctions imposed by NATO countries have steadily caused the Russian economy to falter and fall apart in some areas. Desperate to solve the heating problem, the government has nationalized heating plants in some areas and sent in government specialists to get the heating systems up and running again. The former employees of the heating operations were out of work, with vague assurances that they would get their jobs back once spring arrived and the heating crisis was over.

In some parts of the country, electrical power was a problem. The growing costs of the war meant cuts had to be made elsewhere and, in some areas, this meant the electrical generation and distribution system fell into disrepair and frequent failures. These blackouts meant periods of no heat. Freezing in the dark was an immediate problem that was far more important to fix than the disasters occurring in Ukraine.

The Russian people tolerated heavy casualties and frequent defeats in Ukraine, but there is no such patience for blackouts and failed heating systems. Those problems were very personal while the war in Ukraine was a distant disaster that could be ignored. Another year of heating calamities and electricity shortages could end the war more quickly than any peace talks and negotiations.