Murphy's Law: Governors Ignoring Putin

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January 14, 2026: The Ukraine War has had some dangerous repercussions inside Russia. Over the last four years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been so engrossed with the war in Ukraine that the governors ruling the 48 Oblasts/Provinces have been acting independently. Before the war, Putin regularly met with governors in person or video conferences. As the Ukraine War dragged on, Putin had less time to confer with and manage his appointed governors. It could have been worse, because in the two decades before the Ukraine War, Putin abolished local elections for governors and appointed trusted aides to be governors. After three years of war, the appointed governors found that Putin was no longer paying much attention to provincial affairs or what the governors were doing.

The governors played an important role in supplying the Russian military with soldiers. The governors had to use money from the provincial treasury to pay enlistment bonuses to new soldiers. While the national government paid and equipped soldiers once they left their province, the governors had to look after the families and pay compensation to families who lost a son or father in the war.

The financial burden on some provinces became intolerable after three years. For the less affluent provinces that meant they could no longer pay the signing bonuses to induce men to join the army. Many potential recruits were put off by how many local men had already been killed in Ukraine. Putin had grown so out of touch with provincial affairs that he did not notice the decline in the number and quality of new troops until it was too late.

In the last year Putin’s attention was monopolized by the catastrophic losses Russia was suffering in Ukraine. When the governors were asked for explanations, they made excuses and assured the boss that the crisis would be taken care of. Putin sensed what was going on and considered appointing new governors in the provinces with the most problems. He was told by his aides that a new governor was unlikely to fix anything because many provinces were broke and the local populations were openly protesting the privations because of the Ukraine War effort. Many provinces were drifting dangerously close to rebellion and civil war.

And then there were the growing number of economic sanctions that made it impossible to manufacture many or any high-tech weapons. The rundown railroads were already having problems keeping remote parts of Russia supplied with food and fuel. Things weren’t so bad in Moscow, where Putin and his associates live. Putin ignored the privations suffered in the rest of Russia, declaring them western propaganda. The provincial governors were appointed by Putin, who expected to hear from them that everything was fine. The governors went along with this until they couldn’t. At that point they slip out of the country and live off the billions of dollars they have stolen and deposited in foreign banks.