March 17, 2026: A major weapon employed against the Russian war effort in Ukraine has been sanctions imposed by NATO countries. That’s because the combined GDPs of NATO countries is nearly 55 trillion dollars. That is nearly half the global GDP of 117 trillion dollars. One offensive weapon NATO can wield against Russia is economic sanctions. Given how much of the global economy NATO nations possess, sanctions by the NATO alliance have materially damaged Russia’s economy. While Russia can continue to produce weapons and military equipment in the short term, the cumulative impact of the sanctions decreases the Russian ability to manufacture the most effective weapons. These are the systems that depend on components imported from NATO countries. After 2022 Russia had to get by on stockpiled components and the few it could smuggle in. By 2025 Russia was out of many items needed to keep its wartime economy going. Russia doesn’t plan on withdrawing from the war in Ukraine but will have to continue with fewer and less effective weapons and military supplies. Since Russian military efforts in Ukraine have been stalled for over a year, the looming shortages mean sustained stalemate.

Russia will cope, but they won’t win and because of the impact of sanctions on their economy, the Russians are not immune to economic strain. The war and the sanctions imposed have reshaped its economy. Growth has slowed almost to a halt. Inflation remains persistent. Interest rates are high. Labor shortages are acute, driven by mobilization, emigration and the demands of the defense industries. Investment and output in civilian industries has weakened, and long-term prospects for productivity and technological upgrading have deteriorated. This has been a painful process, with no relief in sight.

These developments are significant. They imply a poorer, less dynamic economy over time. But the crucial question is whether they undermine Russia’s capacity or willingness to continue the war. On that point, the evidence is more ambiguous.