October 19, 2025:
The drone revolution, which began during the current war in Ukraine, forced armies and air forces to rethink how they operate and adjust to dealing with thousands of cheap drones rather than heretofore traditional weapons like artillery and tanks. Ukraine defeated and largely destroyed the Russian Black Sea fleet with a few anti-ship missiles and hundreds of aerial and naval drones. Ukraine never had a navy, other than some patrol boats. But using drones they defeated Russian naval forces that had long dominated the Black Sea and blockaded Ukrainian ports that handled the export of Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products as well as vital imports.
Most of the actual fighting was done by Ukrainians operating drones, especially First Person View or FPV drones. The drone operator uses a headset that enables him to see what the drone video camera sees. The larger naval drones sometimes had a wireless connection to a land based operator. But these drones were also equipped to operate autonomously if the wireless links with the operator were disrupted.
Noting the Ukrainian experiences, navies, especially the U.S. Navy and the marines that are transported by the navy, began to experiment with drones and experience the way decision making shifted to drone operators, who have to make decisions quickly and cannot rely on a hierarchy of superiors to manage everything they do. The Ukrainian experience demonstrated that you train drone operators and then turn them loose in the combat zone.
This new form of warfare does not change the need for large naval task forces able to quickly move thousands of kilometers to the combat zone. Drones have had little impact on ship to ship warfare but have revolutionized operations in coastal or riverine operations inland. This is where drones dominate operations and commanders depend on the skills of their drone operators and the capabilities of the latest models of drones. The Ukrainian war has demonstrated that technical improvements in drones happen frequently and many of those changes are in response to some new tactic or technology the enemy is using.
Navies have to consider how they will deal with swarms of aerial and naval drones attacking ships that get within a few or dozen kilometers of a hostile shore.
The Chinese Navy is particularly active in developing new uses for drones. They already have a drone carrier ship and several smaller autonomous ships that are controlled from shore or a nearby manned ship. The Americans pay close attention to what the Chinese are doing because China expects to have a larger and more powerful fleet than the United States by the 2030s. Chinese naval superiority will rely on how well Chinese drones do. This is a new and as yet untried naval weapon. The Ukrainians demonstrated how effective drones could be in the Black Sea, but no one has convincingly demonstrated the use of drones in other naval theaters. At least not yet. Whoever can develop the most effective drones and tactics first will have an edge in future naval conflicts. Victory will go to the side that most effectively selects and uses the many autonomous drone operators.