January 2, 2026: The war in Ukraine has provided Russia with multiple problems. One of the more troublesome is growing public criticism. Many Russians are protesting not the invasion of Ukraine, but the impact it is having them and family members. The Russian government overreacted, as it tends to do, arresting thousands of Russians for casual comments about the son of a friend who might be sent to Ukraine. When the Russian government decides that dissent among the public about the war, even if it’s not criticism, arrests must be made and the people must be made to understand that all Russians support what is being done in Ukraine. Most Russians do, but the government believes that rounding up and punishing a few thousand people will inspire everyone else to keep quiet.

What is happening now is part of a decades-long transformation of Russian attitudes towards their government and vice versa. Over a decade ago Russian opinion polls revealed that a decade long transformation back into a police state was losing popularity. Most Russians believed the government was prosecuting protestors and reformers out of spite, not because the accused have broken any laws or threaten public order. Russians want order and prosperity, but it was becoming increasingly clear that most Russians did not want their police state past restored. This was particularly the case when the government tried to take control of organizations that provided useful independent opinions. Thus the surprising, to the government, public opposition to attempts to curb the independence of the Academy of Sciences. This organization was government controlled during the Soviet period, but was always respected because science was one of the few areas where the communists made Russians proud. The Academy became independent of the government after the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. The current government sees the Academy of Sciences as another base for malcontents and critics. In this case, the scientists had more support than the government.

Despite the growth of public opposition, Russia continues its transformation back into a police state. It’s not just reformers who are attacked; foreigners are demonized and foreign aid organizations were recently banned. The government wants to eliminate independent Russian charities as well. This was based on the fear that any independent organization was a potential threat to the state. Very Soviet, and this attitude had some support inside Russia where paranoia thrives because many still see enemies of the state wandering around everywhere.

The new police state mentality requires a lot of external enemies to make Russians frightened enough to tolerate all the new restrictions. This includes using the state-controlled media to demonize the traditional Soviet era enemies of Western Europe and the United States. This caused a lot of anger and frustration in Western Europe. For example, government propaganda complaining about Western anti-missile systems as a ploy to disarm Russia, not stop missile attacks from Iran or North Korea, was seen as absurd by other Europeans. This paranoia, constantly delivered by state controlled media, finds many receptive minds inside Russia. Here, paranoia about the outside world, especially the West, has been a cultural staple for centuries. Senior Russian military leaders openly discuss how Russia might be forced to attack Western anti-missile systems, in self-defense. This was mainly for internal consumption but it alarmed foreigners.

Despite growing government persecution, often using the same methods the Soviets invented, pro-democracy and anti-corruption groups continue to hold public demonstrations. There was also growing discontent among senior government officials about the return to the Soviet past. Unlike the Soviet bureaucrats, the current ones are more aware of the outside world and understand that police states are not as economically successful as true democracies. Early in the Soviet period those with knowledge of the outside world were purged, and usually killed, from the leadership. Currently, pro-Soviet style officials believe that police-state powers make it easier to take down corruption. This was depicted as a fantasy by reformers, who pointed out that communist police states only remain uncorrupt for a brief period before the rot sets in. The big problem in Russia was that for centuries the government has been a police state, one imposed by allegedly enlightened czars. The Soviets dumped the monarchy, expanded the police state, and suppressed the market economy. That did not work, but there’s no general agreement in the current leadership about exactly why. Many Russians just feel more comfortable with a strong man in charge, be they czar, communist, or the deliberately macho Vladimir Putin. Most Russians will tolerate a tyrant if there is peace and prosperity. But this time around Russians want some limits on their protective tyrant.