March 9, 2026: We surrender. That is what most Taiwanese believe will happen if China attacks. Despite that, there are many reasons why China fears the consequences of attacking Taiwan. China depends on foreign trade and is tied with the United States as the largest trading nation in the world. While losing access to Chinese products is a solvable problem for the Americans, it would be a disaster for China and its political leaders.

Seizing Taiwan could also be a disaster. Taiwan is the global leader in the production of key computer equipment. The advanced chip fabs/fabricators of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company make it the most important company in the world. If the fabs were disabled by war or, as Taiwan has threatened, by Taiwan blowing them up upon being invaded, the result would be worldwide economic depression. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has stated this. To avoid that Taiwan could arrange to move the fabs and the personnel that operate them to a safe country. South Korea, Australia or the United States would be glad to accept this transfer. Taiwan is unlikely to do so as that would be an invitation for the West to abandon them to China. Many other skilled or wealthy Taiwanese could also move somewhere else and leave China with the prospect of capturing a hollowed out Taiwan and the enmity of the rest of the world. The ensuing worldwide depression would also destroy the ability and willingness of the world to pay for Chinese exports and thereby destroy China’s economy along with the ruling Chinese Communist Party.

Then there is the real prospect of an attempted invasion of Taiwan failing. For decades Taiwan has been building up its military. For example, seventeen years ago Taiwan was reducing its armed forces from 350,000 back then, to 275,000 now and 215,000 by 2014. At that point, the military would be all-volunteer. Conscription has long been unpopular, and fewer troops will mean more money for new equipment.

Defending the island against Chinese attack is seen more a matter of technology than masses of troops. To that end, Taiwan has resumed development and production of the Hsiung Feng 2E cruise missile. This project was halted 17 months ago to appease China, but that didn't work. Taiwan has also developed its own laser guided bomb kits similar to the U.S. JDAM.

The Hsiung Feng 2E is a 5.8 meter long cruise missile that weighs a ton with a 205 kg warhead and has a top speed of 800 kilometers an hour. Max range is 600 kilometers. It uses inertial and GPS guidance. The Hsiung Feng 2E was developed from the Hsiung Feng 2 anti-ship missile. This was a smaller weapon (0.685 ton), with a range of 160 kilometers. It entered service in the early 1990s, and by the late 1990s, developers were working on turning it into a cruise missile. The Hsiung Feng 2E can be launched from ships or from land and can threaten Chinese targets several hundred kilometers inland. At the same time the U.S. refused a Taiwanese request to buy 60 F-16 fighters, because China was very much opposed to it. So Taiwan began building more weapons that it has designed itself. This included submarines. And eventually got the F-16s anyway.

Faced with the prospect of an empty victory and retaliation from the rest of the world, Chinese leaders may respond to the Taiwanese attitude of surrendering with an attitude of, why bother? Attacking Taiwan risks much with the prospect of little gain.