January 26, 2026: In an unusual multibillion dollar arms deal, Pakistan is providing one of the two factions in the Libyan civil war with substantial arms sales and training support. Pakistan is selling $4.6 billion worth of combat and trainer aircraft to the Libyan National Army/LNA, which is also known as the clan/tribal faction subsidized by Turkey. This includes sixteen JF-17 jet fighter bombers and twelve Super Mushak jet trainers. Also included are training for pilots and aircraft maintainers as well as officers who will plan and control air operations. Deliveries will not be complete until sometime in 2028. Given the general incompetence and corruption of the LNA faction, this sale is most likely being to provide rake-off money to the very corrupt Pakistani military.

The JF-17 is a joint China-Pakistan manufacturing effort. It is a 13.5 ton, single-seat aircraft with a max speed of 1,900 kilometers an hour and a cruise speed of 1,360. Combat range is 900 kilometers on internal fuel and 1,700 kilometers with drop tanks. Ferry range is 3,400 kilometers with drop tanks. Aircraft armament consists of one twin barrel 23mm autocannon. There are eight hard points that can collectively carry 3.4 tons of guided and unguided bombs. The JF-17 can also be equipped with air-to-air and air-to ground missiles, but these are expensive and not suitable for the targets Libyan Air Force encounters. The aircraft sold to Libya will probably be sent by boat and reassembled in Libya.

The LNA Air Force currently has about 15 operational Russian MiG-21, 23 and Su aircraft plus two French Mirage F-1s. There are also about 20 trainer aircraft and about ten helicopters. There are also about 30 Chinese and Russian drones used for reconnaissance and attacks on ground targets.

Libya has been chaotic since dictator Muammar Gaddafi was ousted from office and killed in 2011. This was followed by a persistent ongoing civil war. Eastern Libya is controlled by the Government of National Accord/GNA while western Libya is run by the Libyan National Army or LNA. This was further complicated in 202o when Turkey sent several thousand troops and dozens of drones to protect its illegal offshore natural gas and oil claims granted by the LNA in exchange for protection from its GNA rival. Turkish troops will remain in the country at least until 2026. This continued presence has been a major obstacle to national elections and a peaceful resolution to the twelve-year civil war.

In early 2020, Turkey reinforced the LNA, a UN and Moslem Brotherhood-supported government that failed to gain any national support and even has problems inside Tripoli where rival militias often fight each other. The Turks refuse to send troops to pacify Tripoli and get the militias off the streets. The Turks believe that would lead to endless urban guerrilla war as the militias continued to operate while attacking the Turkish troops seeking to maintain order.

Eastern Libya is more orderly because the last elected Libyan government, called the House of Representatives, is governed under the protection of the GNA run by general Haftar and his sons. The GNA is run like a military organization with discipline and regular supplies, plus medical care for the wounded and proper burial for those killed. It also has significant support from Egypt and some Arab oil states, who oppose Turkish intervention in Libya.

The LNA, confined to Tripoli and Misrata, was slowly being conquered by the GNA when the Turks intervened in 2020. That occurred when the GNA launched an offensive on Tripoli, pushing back the militias fighting for control of neighborhoods in the city. The GNA eventually agreed to a ceasefire and national elections, but the Turkish military and Syrian Arab mercenaries continue to occupy positions in Libya, with no plans for withdrawal. Meanwhile, Egypt is increasingly concerned about the Turkish military presence on its border, a situation unprecedented for centuries.

The LNA is not eager for a free and fair election because most Libyans believe the LNA is affiliated with militias in Tripoli and Misrata to the east. An elected government is expected to impose order on chaotic Tripoli. Turkey and Russia, which have oil development contracts in Libya, both believe an honest government would be bad for their oil and natural gas extraction and export deals.

Libya's economic landscape mirrors its turbulent military situation, characterized by instability and foreign dependencies. The prolonged conflict has severely disrupted the country's economic activities, especially its vital oil industry, which has historically been the backbone of the Libyan economy.

Frequent clashes between rival factions and the control of key oil facilities have led to inconsistent oil production and exportation. Although Libya holds significant oil reserves, the volatility in production has hampered consistent revenue generation. The inability to manage and distribute oil revenues effectively has further exacerbated the economic hardships faced by the Libyan population.

Furthermore, foreign interventions have complicated economic recovery efforts. Countries like Turkey, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates/UAE have vested interests in Libya's resources, influencing economic policies and further entrenching divisions. The ongoing presence of Turkish troops and mercenaries adds a layer of complexity to economic stabilization efforts, with various factions and foreign supporters vying for control over lucrative resources.

Libya's infrastructure has also suffered extensively due to the conflict. Essential services such as healthcare, education, and public utilities are in disarray, contributing to the declining quality of life for many Libyans. The rebuilding of infrastructure will require significant foreign investments and stable local governance, both of which are currently lacking.

The current military and economic situations in Libya are chaotic. No one is prepared to pacify the country for the good of all Libyans. Turkey has sent troops and warships while Russia and the UAE supply weapons and equipment to helpful factions. The rival factions are deadlocked because of Turkish intervention and that means Libya remains divided and chaotic. Libya is a difficult country for firms trying to operate international oil extraction and export operations. To make that work, lots of money is spent on bribes for the various local militias seizing control of oil facilities and not leaving until they are paid. Libya was always a corrupt place, and the deceased dictator Gaddafi kept the country peaceful while slowly improving the economy for most Libyans. Peace in Libya made Gaddafi confident enough to intervene in Chad and contribute to rebel groups in Morocco, South Africa and elsewhere. Gaddafi sought to maintain good relations with the United States, but that became difficult after the terror attacks in the United States during 2001 that left thousands of Americans dead. Gaddafi was not involved but the U.S. was wary of his intentions after 2001.

The Russians are seen as reliable allies of Libya, even though it was Russia which supplied Libya with most of its weapons throughout the Kaddafi era from the 1960s to 2011 and are now delivering fewer, but more modern ones, like Anti-Tank Guided Missiles/ATGMs and portable anti-aircraft missiles to bring down drones. The Turks are seen as a former imperial overlord trying to make a comeback. Their weapons and drones are superior to the Russians’. The Turks also ignore the fact that most Libyans oppose the Islamic conservative militias that the Turks support and see the Turks as more of a threat than the Russians or Arabs who are backing the GNA.

Turkey is threatening war with its neighbor Greece because it demands control of Mediterranean offshore areas which might contain lucrative natural gas deposits. Those had been promised to Greece by Gadaffi’s government and various European treaties, and which the LNA later gave to Turkey in exchange for Turkish intervention to save them from the GNA. Turkey is also at odds with the United States in Syria. All these foreign adventures are an effort to distract Turkish voters from the current economic recession they are suffering from as well as their government's continuing suppression of internal criticism of the government’s corruption.